Market Update

Looking to keep up with the mortgage market, but don’t have time to filter through hundreds of articles written by ostentatious economists? Check out our mortgage market updates – all the important stuff without the fancy words.  Check back weekly to keep up on the latest!

6.23.23

Are we finally over the “hump” of higher mortgage interest rates?  The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate fell again this week, a welcome boost for homebuyers facing a housing market that’s been held back this year by a tight inventory of homes for sale, according to weekly data compiled by mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.67% this week from 6.69% a week ago. One year ago, it averaged 5.81%. With the latest drop, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage is now at its lowest level since the last week of May, when it was at 6.57%. “Mortgage rates slid down again this week but remain elevated compared to this time last year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

As things stand in the economy now, inflation is still at 4%, much better than the 9% it was at one year ago, but not quite at the fed’s targeted 2%.  Because of this, experts predict the fed will increase the rate another 0.500% before the end of 2023 to continue its efforts to tamp inflation.

This changes the sentiments of many experts, including Jillian Mariutti-Neder, capital markets senior director at Fox Business, who are now saying it will be 2024 before we see an easing in interest rates.  Realtor.com projects 30-year mortgage rates will average 6.4% for the remainder of 2023 and fall to 6.1% by year’s end. It’s a slightly more favorable projection than the last, when the company forecast mortgage rates would average 7.4% in 2023 before falling to 7.1% by year’s end.  Perhaps there lies a little silver lining!

As far as the housing market goes, Realtor.com forecasts home prices will fall 0.6% in 2023, a sharp reversal from the projected 5.4% growth it issued in its November report. The tough conditions for buying a home will likely lead many to opt for renting, and Realtor.com forecasts strong rental demand through the rest of the year. On the other hand, there are signs of a rebound in new home construction. Housing starts jumped 21.7% last month to 1.63 million units—the highest since April of last year—surging past expectations of 1.39 million. A sustained uptick in new construction could help boost supply in a market grappling with low inventory, easing price pressures for prospective homebuyers.

Other economic factors could influence the housing market in the coming months. While the economy and labor market have been strong coming out of the pandemic, boosted by strong consumer spending, this could change if consumers burn through their remaining cash savings. That would further cool the housing market, setting the stage for a sustained decline in prices that would make housing more affordable, especially if mortgage rates pull back and construction of new homes gathers pace.

On a positive note, the National Home Builders Association‘s June survey marks the sixth straight month that builder confidence has increased and is the first time that sentiment levels have surpassed the midpoint of 50 (out of 100) since July 2022. The score in June was 55, up five points from May.  “Builders are feeling cautiously optimistic about market conditions given low levels of existing home inventory and ongoing gradual improvements for supply chains,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Alabama. “However, access for builder and developer loans has become more difficult to obtain over the last year, which will ultimately result in lower lot supplies as the industry tries to expand off cycle lows.”

How are your sentiments about the market evolving as we slowly seem to be approaching new territory?  Is your optimism waning, or growing?

Sources:

“Homebuilders are all smiles right now” Sarah Marx, Housing Wire, 6/19/2023

“Housing starts surge by nearly 22% in May” Arnie Aurellano, Scotsman Guide, 6/22/2023

“Fed chair appears before House…” Arnie Aurellano, Scotsman Guide, 6/21/2023

“Mortgage rates ease for third straight week” Jay Spoehel, FoxBusiness, 6/22/2023

“It May Get Even Harder to Buy a Home This Year” Mack Wilowski, Investopedia, 6/22/2023

6.16.23

Well it finally happened – for the first time in over a year months, the fed did NOT raise the interest rate this week!  Although short term market reaction was positive and we saw rates improve slightly, there is still quite a bit of hesitation coming from the fed to commit to being out of the woods.  In fact, current expectations are that the fed will raise the rate at least 2 more times in 2023, as they continue to battle inflation and other economic woes.

According to Michele Raneri, VP of Transunion. “It remains to be seen what happens in months to follow, but for June at least, borrowers could see somewhat of a stabilization of rates across a range of industries, in particular, mortgage and credit card.”  As for what the Fed’s recent action (or rather, lack thereof) means in mortgage, Raneri said that short-term rate stability could help the lagging market.

“In the mortgage market, consumers may be buoyed by the news that interest rates are holding steady, at least for now, at a time where a $300,000, 30-year 6.8% fixed rate mortgage now sees monthly payments in the range of $1,956. This is up from $1,297 at the 3.2% rates seen in January 2022. However, it remains to be seen if, in the short term, this will spur many who have been holding off to finally engage in a new purchase or refinance, or if they will continue waiting until rates begin dropping.” But Rothell pointed out that “we should not expect to see the record-low rates from the last 10 years any time soon,”

“Mortgage rates, while still on a gradual decline, are likely to remain higher through the remainder of year,” she said. (1)

Ahead of the Fed meeting, mortgage applications picked up last week as rates dropped slightly – another factor that impacted rates was the debt ceiling agreement. “For real estate markets, today’s decision by the Fed will ensure that mortgage rates are likely to keep moving sideways for the next couple of months,” George Ratiu, chief economist at Keeping Current Matters, said in a statement. “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has moved in the 6% – 7% range since mid-November 2022, cresting the upper limit several times over the past few weeks.”

It feels as though optimism for a rate drop in 2024 is waning, as the needle seems to be moving at a snail’s pace in the right direction.  Here at the KPT, we’ve seen mortgage applications slow up in the past few weeks, which always makes me wonder – is NOW the best time to buy?  Fewer buyers in the market means less competition. If rates improve, refinancing is always an option. Why wait until rates improve to buy?  What are your thoughts?

SOURCES:

“Rate hikes paused for now…” Arnie Aurellano, Scotsman Guide, 6/14/2023

“Fed pauses rate hikes in June” Flavia Furlan Nunes, HousingWire, 6/14/2023

 

6.7.23

It has been a pretty quiet week in mortgage markets, rates have shifted a bit but nothing monumental since we saw a decent drop of about 0.25% last week.  Buyer activity has been quiet in the wake of Memorial Day weekend, with low inventory and high interest rates continuing to be the biggest challenge for buyers.

The question I am asked on a daily basis is “When will the interest rates drop?” Let’s dive into that topic, and see what we can come up with!  Read on to hear some expert’s thoughts:

“The Fed has recently signaled that it may forego a rate increase at its next meeting while it evaluates the effect its recent increases have had on inflation, but the market still expects the Fed to continue raising rates later this year,” says Peter Idziak, senior associate at Polunsky Beitel Green. “However, if the Fed stops raising because the data shows the economy weakening and inflation coming down further, then I would expect mortgage rates to decrease during the second half of 2023.”

Chief Economist at First American Financial Corp, Mark Fleming, says an interest rate drop may not happen for several months. “Possibly in 2024, but it will depend on the Fed’s decisions about raising rates in the second half of the year,” says Fleming. “And even if they do go down, it won’t be back to the rates of yesteryear. 6% mortgage rates used to be normal, and that’s more reasonable to expect too.”

Adam Sharif, founder and chief strategist of nxtCRE—a platform for commercial real estate investors—agrees. He adds, “If rates go down, it will be next year and not by much. Today’s interest rates are considered normal by historical measures.”

WHAAAAT could he possibly mean, rates are at historical lows?  Wasn’t 3% a historic low?  Well, it may all give us all a bit of a stomachache to hear, but if you review the chart below, you’ll see that rates are about where they were at in the first decade of the 2000’s, and rates were higher than they are today the 30 years preceding 2000.

Does this simply mean we are in a more realistic market than we have been the past 10 years, and we need to adjust our mentality around interest rates?

When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in May, the Federal Open Markets Committee deleted a reference to “future increases” that appeared in previous statements, causing speculation that interest rate hikes may be nearing a pause. Along those lines, organizations like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will decline throughout 2023, continuing into the first quarter of 2024.  So far we haven’t seen much in regards to a decline….so does that mean we have a lot to look forward to as we move into the second half of 2023?

Some of the answers to this question could lie in the June Fed meeting next week. The Fed’s May meeting marks what could be the last increase we see for the time being. The central bank has signaled that it may soon be time to pause on rate hikes. Depending on incoming inflation data, the next step would be to hold rates where they are for an extended period of time in order to bring inflation down to its 2% target. As long as inflation continues to trend downward, experts say a pause in rate hikes from the Fed could bring some stability to today’s volatile mortgage rate market.

Just as in everything in life, only time will tell! What are your predictions on interest rates for the remainder of 2023?

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SOURCES:

“When will mortgage interest rates drop?” Tim Maxwell, CBS News, 5/5/2023

“Mortgage Interest Rates Today” Katherine Watt, CNET, 6/7/2023

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the US, FRED Economic Data/St. Louis Fed, 6/8/2023

 

6.1.23

Memorial Day, Graduations, summer is here in full force!  Congratulations to all graduates, and a special shout out to our teammate Peter’s son, Gabe, who graduated from New Richmond High School this past weekend!

And, if this is your first time here, welcome to our website!  You’ll continue to see our weekly market updates posted here.  Feel free to browse around a bit – if you haven’t heard our podcast yet, check out our “Open New Doors” podcast tab, as well as our other tabs to educate yourself on the lending process, meet the team, and find some inspiration!

Watching the mortgage market is kind of like watching today’s worst reality shows – you never know what is coming around the bend.  We’ve all been waiting on pins and needles for the government to agree on raising the debt ceiling limit, and the markets have been a full-on bloodbath.  Over the past week, mortgage applications declined as mortgage rates hit the highest levels in six months.  “Inflation is still running too high, and recent economic data is beginning to convince investors that the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates anytime soon,” Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, said in a statement. “Mortgage rates for conforming balance 30-year loans were being quoted above 7% by some lenders last week, and the weekly average at 6.9% reached the highest level since last November.”

Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater says, “The economy’s resilience and uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling negotiations caused mortgage rates to climb.”  According to Mortgage News Daily, the conventional loan 30-year fixed rate reached the 7.14% level on Friday amid the debt-ceiling drama. After the tentative deal announcement by the leaders on Tuesday, it went down to 7.02%. This morning it is reporting at 6.88% – that is quite a drop in a 3-day timespan.

Now that we’ve overcome another economic crisis, where does that leave mortgage interest rates?  According to Craig Berry, contributor to The Mortgage Reports, “With a resolution reached and the debt ceiling raised, things should mostly return to normal. With the fear of a default removed and stability reestablished consumer confidence will likely be restored, and interest rates should slowly start coming down over the next 60 days.”  I like the way you think, Craig!  That is what we were hoping to hear!

IN LOCAL NEWS! Pioneer Press reporter Frederick Melo shares, “One-third of St. Paul new exempt from rent control as exceptions pile up.  Landlords now have the right to hike rents on empty rental units by 8% plus inflation, well over the 3% rent cap imposed last year by the city’s new rent control ordinance.”  This could be a huge win for landlords in St Paul who have struggled through these rent control changes, paying higher taxes and inflated carrying costs on properties while not being allowed to increase rents have made investing in St. Paul a big challenge.

Are we back on the downward slope of interest rates?  We’re always looking into the horizon for the next news break…next up – the Fed meeting mid June, will they raise interest rates again?

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“How the US Debt Ceiling Talks Could Influence Your Mortgage Rate” Craig Berry, TheMortgageReports, 6/1/2023

“Leaders struck a debt ceiling deal. What it means for mortgages” Flavia Furlan Nunes, HousingWire, 5/30/2023

“Today’s Mortgage Rates” Mortgage News Daily, 6/1/2023

“Mortgage apps decline” Flavie Furlan Nunes, HousingWire, 5/31/2023

“One-third of St. Paul now exempt…” Frederick Melo, Pioneer Press, 5/28/2023

“Case-Shiller home price index picks up…” Arnie Aurellano, Scotsman Guide, 5/30/2023

5.26.23

This week we are excited about a *new* program that offers down payment assistance up to 2% of the purchase price, and NO monthly PMI.  This program will bring some relief to homebuyers as rates have gone up these past few weeks.  Income limits and a few other caveats apply – let me know if you’d like to learn more and see if you or someone you know will qualify!

Yes – that’s right, rates have been going up – they are now at the highest level in two months. Economic data continues to be strong, worrying investors that another rate hike may be in our future.  There’s also the looming possibility that the U.S. government may default on its debt as the White House and GOP leadership wrangle over a deal to raise the federal government’s debt ceiling so it can avoid an unprecedented default as soon as June 1. “The U.S. economy is showing continued resilience which, combined with debt ceiling concerns, led to higher mortgage rates this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Jitters over the possibility that the government ends up defaulting on its debt could cause creditors to ask for higher interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds, which could lead to a “significant increase” in borrowing costs, including mortgages, said Jiayi Xu, an economist at Realtor.com.

“Mortgage applications declined almost five percent last week as borrowers remained sensitive to higher rates. The 30-year fixed rate is at the highest level since March,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Since rates have been so volatile and for-sale inventory still scarce, we have yet to see sustained growth in purchase applications.”

In a country with more than 330 million people, there are only 70,000 new homes available for sale today in the U.S. housing market. And with total active house listings in America near all-time lows, that is all we have for completed units for sale. The number of new homes doesn’t ever get into the millions, but we are still working our way back to the pre-COVID levels of 80,000 to 100,000. On a positive note, the housing market received positive data on new residential construction – which is seen as a key solution to the lack of housing inventory.

Have you been checking out new construction lately?  Are you or your clients considering new construction when perhaps you weren’t before?

I’m curious to see what happens once we pass the debt default date of June 1……stay tuned!

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SOURCES:

“Mortgage Applications Decrease Again” Jann Swanson, Mortgage News Daily, 5/24/2023

“Only 70,000 new homes available for sale” Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire 5/23/2023

“Average long term US Mortgage rate rises…” Alex Veiga, ABC News, 5/25/2023

“Home buyers will now be able to put down as little as 1% on their home…” Aarthi Swaminathan, MarketWatch, 5/22/2023

 “Higher mortgage rates, wider spreads follow debt ceiling impasse” Flavia Furlan Nunes, HousingWire, 5/25/2023

5.18.23

Thank you to those that joined us at our launch event this week, it was a humbling experience to have so many wonderful people stop by to offer their encouragement and support.  I’ve attached a picture of the team at the event!

Well as we were busy party planning this week, mortgage interest rates were creeping up – and are now at a 2 month high.  Now hovering in the mid-sixes again, a year ago today the 30 year fixed rate was at 5.25%.

 

“Mortgage rates have remained in the roughly 6% to 7% range for the last eight months and will likely remain in this range until incoming economic data makes the economy’s path forward more clear,” said Hannah Jones, Realtor.com economic data analyst. “Buyer demand has been sensitive to the ebb and flow of mortgage rates, but near-peak home prices and elevated inflation mean many would-be buyers are still waiting on the sidelines.”

 

And, we are once again in “debt ceiling panic”, with economists believing a default would drive the cost to purchase a home up 22% and spiking mortgage rates to over 8%.  “The sooner the debt impasse is resolved, the less likely it is to negatively affect households already plagued by high prices,” she said.

 

Coming from a more optimistic lens, Rocket Mortgage‘s top executives believe the mortgage market is near the bottom, which means a recovery may be on the horizon soon.

“If we’re at historic refinance lows and if we’re at secular purchase lows, you largely can paint a picture over the coming years that we’ll see both of those expand. So yes, we’re toward the bottom in that,” Bob Walters, CEO at Rocket Mortgage and president and COO at Rocket Companies, said.

Here at the KPT, our June volume is looking higher than we’ve seen it since this time last year, which gives us some hope that we are on the cusp of change!

How are you feeling now that we are officially in the “spring” market? Do you think the tides are shifting, or are we still stuck in a rut?

 

SOURCES:

 

“Mortgage Rates Now at 2 Month Highs” Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily, 5/18/2023

“Mortgage rates bounce back up after falling for two weeks” Anna Bahney, CNN, 5/18/22023

“Mortgage rates increased this week as the debt ceiling battle continues” Flavia Furlan Nunes, HousingWire, 5/18/2023

“Inside Rocket’s strategy” Flavia Furlan Nunes, HousingWire, 5/17/2023

5.11.23

Mortgage rates fell slightly last week after the chairman of the Federal Reserve suggested a potential end to a historic string of interest rate hikes. The drop wasn’t substantial, but it was enough to boost demand from current homeowners hoping to refinance their mortgages to lower rates.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased last week to 6.48% from 6.50% in the previous week, with points declining to 0.61 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey. The rate was 5.53% for the same week one year ago. Mortgage rates for all surveyed loan types decreased over the week. (1)

Heading into 2023, most housing analysts were on the bearish side. Among the 27 major forecasters, 23 expected national home prices to fall in 2023 under the weight of spiked mortgage rates. However, through the first few months of 2023, these bearish views haven’t manifested. (2)  Here in the twin cities market, we are seeing prices hold, but not the extreme over-bidding that was more common in 2022.

 

Speaking of local real estate news, ​​​Minnesota legislators are raising the metro sales tax to fund housing assistance, devoting hundreds of millions from the state surplus to adding and preserving affordable housing and helping first-generation homeowners afford down payments.  The state House and Senate approved a $1 billion housing bill this week that is headed to Gov. Tim Walz’s desk for a final signature. The deal falls short of some DFL legislators’ and advocates’ early spending goals, but many called it an important step toward meeting Minnesota’s dire housing needs. Throughout the legislative session, Rep. Mike Howard, DFL-Richfield, has compared Minnesota’s budget to a gallon of water and said state dollars for housing have amounted to a tablespoon. “We are putting a couple heaping tablespoons of housing in this budget,” Howard said Tuesday. He said the roughly $150 million to $200 million a year the metro sales tax increase will generate is “truly a game changer. This state has never put anything approaching that, in terms of dedicated revenue, to housing.”

 

While $1 billion is more than the state has ever spent on housing, much of the money is one-time cash from the state’s budget surplus and will end after the next two-year budget cycle. Only the money from the metro sales tax and another $50 million from the state’s general fund, most of which will be devoted to rent aid, will be sustained in future years. Many GOP members condemned the boost to the metro sales tax at a time of surplus. “A sales tax increase is going to further hurt those who are hurting the most,” said Sen. Eric Lucero, R-St. Michael. He said over-regulation is driving up housing prices and that raising taxes is not the solution.

Here are five key spending and tax changes in the housing bill.

Metro sales tax hike

Visitors and residents in the seven-county metro area will see a .25% sales tax increase on purchases starting Oct. 1. It won’t apply to food, clothing or other items exempt from the state sales tax. The tax increase, which amounts to $1 for every $400 spent, is estimated to generate $353 million over the next two years.

A quarter of the sales tax dollars will go to a state rent assistance account for housing vouchers in the metro. Another quarter will be channeled to housing aid for metro cities, and the remaining half would go to metro county housing assistance.

Rent assistance

About 5,000 households each year will get rent vouchers through the housing bill, said Ben Helvick Anderson, a spokesman for the Bring it Home, Minnesota campaign that advocated for rent aid. The money will help reduce lengthy Section 8 waitlists, he said.

On top of the sales tax dollars, the state will spend $46 million from the general fund to provide rent assistance statewide, a figure that will continue beyond the next two-year budget. The total is far less than the $1.7 billion for vouchers that some advocates and DFL lawmakers originally championed.

“There is 213,000 households who would qualify and could take a voucher. So there’s a lot of work to be done,” Helvick Anderson said. “But this is a great first step.”

Homeowner help

The bill contains $150 million in down payment assistance for first-generation homebuyers. Howard estimated the money will create more than 5,000 new homeowners. They will have to meet certain eligibility requirements, including having a parent who has never owned a home or lost one through foreclosure.

“We have a shameful ownership gap between white households and Black households in Minnesota, and this will target that and be really helpful,” said Sen. Lindsey Port, DFL-Burnsville.

 

Housing creation, preservation

About half of the $1 billion will go to bolstering the state’s insufficient housing supply, bill sponsors said. The biggest portion of that is $200 million in one-time cash for a housing infrastructure program. Another $90 million will be used to buy or rehabilitate so-called “naturally occurring affordable housing,” such as some aging, low-rent apartment complexes that could otherwise have been “gobbled up by investors,” displacing people, Howard said.

The bill also contains dollars for greater Minnesota workforce housing development, as well as preservation and creation of manufactured, or mobile, housing. (4)

5.5.23

It has been so nice to get outside this week and enjoy some warmer weather and even a little sunshine.  Our buyers are feeling spring in the air too – last weekend was one of the busiest we have seen in 2023 from an offer standpoint – but we are still running into multiple offers, waiving inspections, and tough competition.  What we have not been seeing as much is the ratcheting up of prices in a bidding war, offers seem to be going in a little closer to list price than we saw in 2022.  What are you seeing as spring market finally gets underway?

 

The news we’ve been waiting for – the fed raised interest rates again this week, to 5.25%.  This is the Fed’s 10^th consecutive rate increase aimed at battling inflation, bringing it to a 16 year high.  This caused a fall in stocks Wednesday afternoon, and so far, mortgage markets seem to be responding favorably with a slight improvement in mortgage interest rates throughout the last part of this week.

 

“The Committee does not appear to be pre-committing to another rate hike on June 14,” said Jay Bryson, Chief Economist with Wells Fargo Economics, Charlotte, N.C. “In its March 22 statement, the FOMC said that it ‘anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.’ Today’s statement dropped the reference to ‘anticipates.’ Rather, the statement said ‘in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate’…The Committee could indeed hike rates by 25 bps on June 14, but that decision will depend crucially on incoming data over the next six weeks. In our view, the bar to a rate hike on June 14 is higher than it has been at past meetings since March 2022.”

 

As it relates specifically to mortgage lending, Marty Green of San Antonio mortgage law firm Polunsky Beitel Green said that the fact that many expected Wednesday’s rate increase has already softened the blow.  “The good news is the mortgage market had already priced in the quarter-point increase,” he said. “The hope is that a pause in future increases, along with less interest rate volatility, will cause mortgage rates to return to a more historically consistent spread in relation to 10-year treasuries. That spread has typically been 1.5-2.0%, but today, that spread is over a point higher. So, it’s possible that mortgage rates might see improvement later this year even without the Fed actually lowering the discount rate.”

A few positive predictions regarding mortgage interest rates this year came out this week:

 

“Mortgage rates are likely to descend lower later in the year as the consumer price inflation calms down and changes the thinking of the Fed from tightening to possibly loosening the monetary policy,” says NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun. “That’s very important in light of regional, small-size banks that are unable to absorb rate hikes like, for example, First Republic Bank.”

 

Consumer confidence levels, even more than the cost of borrowing, could decide how the housing market will fare, according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.  An economic downturn later this year, even a mild one, could send mortgage rates a little lower in the second half of the year, says Sturtevant.  “Consumer confidence, which dipped to a nine-month low last month, could be the most important metric to watch,” says Sturtevant. “How people are feeling about economic uncertainties could be the key driver of what the housing market looks like in the second half of the year.”

 

…and now a new feature of our weekly updates – the Mortgage Quote Of The Week!

 

“With this increase, we expect this is the peak rate for this cycle, and potential homebuyers and their mortgage lenders may be breathing a sigh of relief. We continue to expect that mortgage rates will drift down over the course of the year as the economy slows, as we move closer to the Fed lowering rates beginning in 2024, and as financial market volatility finally begins to settle down.” –Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association.